Expect snow on Friday as a weather front moves into the Cascades. Snow level will be about 4000ft by afternoon and expect 3-8″ . A convergence zone will form near Stevens for enhanced snowfall in the Central Cascades.
There will be partial clearing early Saturday, but a warm front will be near the border by evening. That system will spread a rain snow mix (SL 4000-5000 ft) over the Cascades by late Saturday and early Sunday, with lower snow levels by later Sunday(3000ft) – Monday (SL 2000 ft). There is some uncertainty about this storm. Expect 5-10″ of snow Sunday/Monday – but there is some very high up side potential (a couple of feet of snow), with Monday having epic powder potential and low snow levels.
Expect Tuesday and Wednesday to see a high-pressure system move in and that will mean mostly sunny weather and another hint of spring skiing.
—–Grand poobah
And … submitted for your consideration…
No doubt you have heard about the avalanche at Crystal. It took out chair six. No one was hurt, as the patrol did the blasting – which caused the avalanche – after the ski area was closed.
Clearly the slope was identified as unstable. The instability was caused by the January dry spell followed by the massive snow in February. Then, what really destabilized the pack, was the rain on snow (2-4″ of rain) from this past weekends atmospheric river event.
The patrol often blasts known and suspected high-risk avalanche zones, so they don’t slide at random. But the reality is, snow can slide at any time, given the right conditions. The area that slid had been blasted dozens, if not hundreds of times in the past decades, but never went this big – big enough to take out the chairlift. It was quite spectacular, but obviously a dangerous situation. The patrol had good safety factors built into this blasting operation. Always aware that a rare large magnitude avalanche event, like this, is remotely possible with any charge. As a result no one was hurt – that was not lucky, that was good planning.
The patrol takes huge personal risks to manage the uncertainty of the mountain environment for your fun skiing experience. Paul Baugher, the head of Crystal ski patrol and world avalanche expert has been caught in avalanches. He was almost killed in one, as he was trying to rescue another buried skier who was skiing outa bounds. The patrol would prefer not take on additional risk, by having to rescue or search for someone ignoring signs. But in the end, patrollers do take on this and many other risks and we salute them for their dedication.
Next time you think about jumping a rope or ignoring a ski patrol sign or closures – remember this avalanche. The mountain doesn’t know you are an expert and doesn’t care
….Poobah
