Greeting fellow powder junkies,
A weak system is moving through tonight with very little Cascade snowfall. Expect a trace to 2″ with a 4000 ft snow level – definitely not memorable. The computer models indicate a better storm, will move into the Cascades Thursday night and Friday. Right now it looks like we’ll get 4-12″ . Every bit helps. This is not a game changer, but I’ll take it. Snow level will drop from about 4500 ft Thursday night to 1500 ft on Friday. There is another respectable storm in about a week, but I’ll wait a few more model runs to see details.
I went up last Thursday to Crystal and it was better than I thought it would be. Let’s be honest, there are thin spots and firm packed on the lower slopes at most of the areas. However, the main runs of the mid and upper slopes are well covered and the snow surface is sometimes good, but variable depending on skier traffic. I am getting reports from Stevens, Baker and White the snowpack conditions are similar. Always check ahead to see what the latest conditions are going to be that day. Unfortunately, The Summit isn’t open yet.
The extended forecast:
more random mumblings of a powder madman…
It has been dry this fall/early winter. Snow in the Cascades is well below normal. The reason for the dry spell is high pressure off our coast is nudging the storms to the north. Also, when we do get some precipitation, snow levels have occasionally been on the moderately high side. This high-pressure circulation is unusually persistent and in a configuration, which shoves our Pacific storms elsewhere.
Since the epic Cascade snow season of La Nina 1998-99 (Mt Baker world record snow season – 1,140″) we have had a lot of really good snow seasons in the Cascades, but there have been a couple of dogs. The 2004-2005 was one of the most disappointing, as we had to wait until March for decent snow. The 2000-20001 was another dog, but most of the rest had average to above average snowfall.
This is a “neutral” season (La Nada). The neutral pattern typically delivers a near normal snowpack, but with no guarantees. In the past few years we have had a lot of variable conditions in January, with great comebacks in February – April. Right now, the first week of January 2014 is not trending toward heavy snow for us on the models – but there is some snow ahead.
There is no month-to-month correlation with snowfall – the atmosphere doesn’t “remember” what it did a month ago. A good example of this was last year – the powderfest of December of 2012 – epic of epics. Then the snow machine hit he skids in January – with a respectable comeback Feb-April.
I ‘ll keep you up to date on the latest.
Go Hawks.
Your Grand Poobah
