Larry’s Powder Alert – February 19, 2015

photo-1Powder Alert – Weather Update Feb 19


A weak weather system, tonight into Friday, will produce minor snow (1-3″) in the Cascades.  The snow level will be 3500ft, so at least that has improved.


This pattern is called ” the ugly inch”. Sadly, the snowfall is so meager it does little to improve conditions. The light snowfall masks the thin spots and areas of non-existent snowpack. The new snow makes conditions look much improved. But it’s a cruel trick, displaying a temporary illusion of a snow comeback.


High pressure builds back in for a dry and moslty sunny pattern for the weekend and early next week.


Now good news:


A comeback may be developing later next week.


Here are a few facts about March snowfall. One month does not “predict” the next month. There is no connection. So a poor February does not mean a poor March.  Also, a normal March/early April time period can produce 3-9ft of snow in the Cascades. We need some of that snow (1-3ft) just to recover from the lack of snowpack on the lower slopes. I don’t wanna count the dumpage, but it’s possible. I am just not confident yet, how this change will play out.


The models are now showing hints of a snowy pattern developing for the very last days of February and early March. It is unclear, right now, what the magnitude and duration may be.  I’ll update as soon as it becomes clear.


Your Grand Poobah