Final Powder Alert
May 8th 2008

Before I begin, Alpental  will be open at least through this weekend (May 10th), call for details. They have a ton of snow, don't forget the sunscreen. Expect spring conditions.

Now for a recap and look into next season.

The season began with an ambitious and confident winter forecast for the Cascades; lots of snowfall, above normal snowpack and epic powder days ahead. La Nina would work its magic.  In the Pacific Northwest, La Nina is as close to a guarantee as it gets in the long range forecasting weather biz. Understandably, I was uneasy with the slow start in November and early December.  I stuck with my gut feeling. Past La Nina's have not let me down. I was not to be denied.

By mid to late December the Cascades snow machine got cranking and didn't ease up until Feb 12. Unending powder days, many epic, with 500-1500ft snowlevels creating superb quality, fresh pow day after day.  An abrupt pause was seen for part of February into March. Then the snow began to fall again. March and April had continuing low snow levels and occasional fantastic powder days. Total snowpack was well above normal, among the deepest on record, in places. With the cold spring weather, the snowpack remains deep and will no doubt be on hiking trails for part of the summer. Also, be careful of cold, swift moving mountain streams through June, July and August, as late snow melt continues. 

Next year a season pass? Hit early season ski sales?

The very long range seasonal computer models, which attempt to forecast La Nina for six to twelve months out, indicate La Nina will stick around until next winter - and that would be great. Note: Expect NO La Nina effects for the NW during the summer. All of the statistical and dynamic models show at least a neutral pattern and many show a modest La Nina for next winter.

See:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Could we repeat a pow fest for next season? If La Nina holds, it's a good bet.

Here's a quote from my final powder alert wrap up from last year (May 2007), and bold prediction regarding the upcoming La Nina ( 2007-2008) which delivered wonderful powder joy this past winter:

"La Nina is a cooling the tropical waters of the Pacific. It aims the storm track right at us, one storm after another. La Nina enhances our normally good snow patterns. It is the best seasonal, climatic signal and predictor for the Pacific Northwest. It is not a guarantee, but it shifts the odds in favor of having wonderful consistent snow in the Cascades. Remember, Mt Baker world record snowfall was in the late 90's - that was a strong La Nina.

La Nina can produce very consistent, moist westerly flow for weeks on end. All with low, but not rock bottom snow levels of 2000 - 3000ft. I would consider staying close to home next season, perhaps a season pass? Planned flexibility, multi-day trips in the Cascades. Once it starts cookin' - you don't want to miss out! "

 
Clearly the above forecast, sent out about a year ago, demonstrates the reliability of La Nina as a long range predictor. I will know more early in the fall. I will send out a new report late in October. I would be optimistic for another great season ahead for 2008-2009. Prepare for pow.

Have a great summer.

Larry Schick
Grand Pubah of Powder