Finally, the weather is cooling down and drying out. It’s been rather difficult lately with the high snow levels producing rain on the snowpack.
Expect a good day making turns on Friday. When you get to the mountains, you’ll see new snow from overnight (2-7″, possible greater above 5000ft) with a SL of 4000ft. A dry pattern will be seen on Friday, with perhaps some sunshine.
It will be dry early on Saturday. By late morning, expect increasing clouds with a new weather system by lunch. There will be rising snow levels, up to 7000ft by midnight. The snow level will drop to 4000ft on Sunday with decreasing showers of rain/snow lower slopes and snow on the mid/high elevations(3-10″ new?).
New snowfall will be seen on Monday with the next weather system ( 3-7″) and lower snow level of 3500ft. Dry much of the rest of the week.
Check this out: heli bombing for avalanche risk management at Stevens Pass WA after 10ft of snow from recent storm series. (Feb 27)
Backcountry avy danger is considerable – check NWAC for latest forecast
New Long Range Outlook: El Nino (2014-15)
Is it a big deal for skiers in the NW? Does it matter? Is it a good predictor?
Computer modeling indicates next season (2014-15) will be an El Nino season, with focused impacts in December, January and February.
We don’t know if it will be strong or weak, or if it will even happen.
Get ready, you are going hear a lot half truths and mis-information from those jackals in the media about El Nino. Hey, remember, I was one of them for more than couple of decades. I know how they think, or in some cases don’t think.
EL Nino is a shift in the warm tropical ocean temperatures, which causes a displacement of thunderstorms near the equator. This in turn causes a shift and split in the preferred jet stream storm tracks along the West Coast of the U.S. This favors precipitation in SoCal and Arizona. The pattern can also steer precipitation north or south of the Pacific NW. It is not a continuous pattern all winter, but only nudging the typical storm track at times, not commanding the path. El Nino is not some wild, mythical Hydra destined to do us in. So, lets all chill out.
The snow season for the Cascades is rarely a bust during El Nino. EL Nino seasons for the Cascades do lean a little dry (5-20% below normal) and a tad warm. The correlation with NW snow and El Nino is weak or indifferent. This is in contrast to La Nina, where there is a strong correlation causing big reliable NW snowfall.
Research has shown we won’t have good confidence if the EL Nino will even develop next winter until August or September, when El Nino indicators stabilize.
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Adding to my own research and analysis, I have used the references below, which are both skiers and scientists, orienting their analysis toward skiers. I personally know both authors.
Ski the Volcanoes
Amar Andalkars – Nuclear Scientist
Your Guide to Snow
Tony Crocker – Professional Statistician
click: snowfall effects El Nino/La Nina
….your Grand Poobah
