Hello Powder Junkies,
After some minor snow dumpage , last Saturday, we are looking at more new snow later this week for the Cascades. The weather pattern is active with no big blocking high pressure, like what caused the dry spell during much of October.
I am looking on the extended weather models into mid November for a multi day big snow pattern. Models are not clear yet on that, but it looks like a progressive pattern with many storms. I am seeing a good chance of major snow dumpage accumulating for the middle and end of the month.
Several major storms are showing up by mid month. In the meantime, these minor snow dumps in the next seven days will be cumulative, gradually building the bases.
The recent snow has been minor – but it is a start. Much of the snow we saw in late September disappeared, but some snow was leftover, in the shade and in north facing gullies above 5000ft.
Typically we need 2-5 feet to get the lifts open – I think it will happen before the month is done!
Seasonal Forecast:
We’ve had a recent trend of early or near Thanksgiving openings. Given the forecasted active pattern, I am optimistic we will be at least be partially open by Thanksgiving weekend. I think there is a fair chance even before then.
This season it’s not El Nino or La Nina. It’s a neutral pattern. Call it : La Nada. Last year was neutral and snowpack was near normal. Last year we saw an epic December, less than epic January (but with great bases) – the rest of the season was pretty good. This season will not be an exact repeat. I think we will have some outstanding powder days and at least one perfect period of very cold, champagne light powder. – I am talking classic “cold smoke” powder!
In the end this year will be near normal for the snowpack, but how it plays out will be illuminated and signaled to you via this powder alert. The idea here, is a heads up from me before it happens. This is all done so you have options and can rearrange your priorities. It’s like you have a secret, private crystal ball. Most big snow dumps come in continuous, multi-day events. I’ll guide you toward those periods and give you my best pick days. Remember, there can be good dumps without a powder alert. I only send them out when the forecast confidence is high and the promised snow forecast will likely occur. One of the biggest secrets in weather forecasting is; all forecasts have the same confidence levels. In reality forecast have variable confidence levels. I will sort it out and produce for you the highest quality forecast only, not some half – baked, road kill forecast. I’ve been doing this for skiers, on the web, since 1996 – so now I’m really getting the hang of it.
Get ready for some fun in the mountains. Let the snow fly…
Your faithful Grand Poobah,
Chief Meteorologist in charge
Lawrence Schick
